This paper proposes a “quasi-agnostic” sign restriction procedure to identify structural shocks in frequentist structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. It argues that low acceptance rates, ...

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Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals.

Advanced econometric techniques, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), have been developed to improve the accuracy of exchange rate forecasting by ...

The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, ...