Treasury yield simulations project 3‑month bills at 1%–2% in 10 years; curves show widening risk premiums, inversion odds and ...

Inverted Yields, Negative Rates, and U.S. Treasury Probabilities 10 Years Forward ...

The “experts” talk about how the U.S. Treasury Curve is currently “inverted.” What does that mean, and should it matter to lenders? The fact is, the yield curve (a graphical representation of yields, ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

A version of this article was published in the November 2015 issue of Morningstar ETFInvestor. Download a complimentary copy of ETFInvestor here. Flaw of Averages Duration, by itself, is a crude ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1975, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts. We analyze here how successful the inverted yield curve ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

The yield curve is an important barometer of economic health and market sentiment within the fixed-income space. While professionals use it to interpret expectations around future interest rates, ...

Earlier this year I wrote the article, “Does An Inverted Yield Curve Mean I Should Get Out Of The Markets?” in which I made these important points: Any indicator which can be manipulated by the ...

A version of this article was originally published on Oct. 8, 2014. The term "interest rate" continues to strike fear into the hearts of bond investors. These fears have only intensified as the timing ...

The bond market is trying to tell us something: The yield curve keeps inverting, flashing a warning sign that a recession could be coming. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell below the 2-year ...