Forecasting a central scenario for the U.S. economy in 2026 appears to be a straightforward exercise. But the probability ...

Discover how tail risk impacts portfolios, why rare financial events matter, and strategies for safeguarding investments against significant, unexpected losses.

Future events are far from certain in the business world. This is especially true for smaller businesses, which tend to have more volatility than larger organizations, or newer businesses without a ...

The normal distribution is a concept in statistics that assumes all values are distributed in the same pattern. It requires symmetry and consistent proportions in the distribution of values. Normal ...

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Forecasting for any small business involves guesswork. You know your business and its past performance, but you may not be comfortable predicting the future. Using Excel is a great way to perform what ...

Discover why options market data suggests a lower crash risk for U.S. stocks than pundit surveys, and how to optimize asset ...