Normal distribution curve that illustrates standard deviations. Each band has 1 standard deviation, and the labels indicate the approximate proportion of area . Source: M. W. Toews Creative Commons ...

Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

We’ve seen a number of outlier events in 2016, but the experts predicted them poorly and are labeling them “black swans.” According to Nassim Taleb, black swan events are highly unexpected for a given ...

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of events happening. The greater the proportion of times an event can happen the greater (or more likely) the probability. Events can be ordered by the ...

Dan Gardner is the author of Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear. He is a senior fellow in the graduate school of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa. In 2003, a novel ...