One of the key difficulties of analyzing highly kinetic enterprises like IonQ Inc (NYSE: IONQ) is that their valuations incur reflexivity. A concept popularized by George Soros, reflexivity is a ...

Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...

A popular recession forecasting tool now shows its highest reading since 1981, signaling a high probability of a downturn in the next 12 months. The S&P 500 declined by an average of 31% during the ...

An unprecedented inversion of the U.S. yield curve led to a sharp increase in the New York Fed's recession probability estimates. A one-month Treasury bill currently yields 2.2% more than a 10-year ...