NORFOLK, Va. — When I started as a professional meteorologist in 1980, long-range hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) went out three days, or 72 hours. It would be over 20 ...

Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

The Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast just shifted slightly, but it’s not because of anything that happened in politics. Rather, it’s because ...

The hurricane forecast cone is adjusted each year before June 1 based on the error rates of the previous five seasons. The average three-day NHC track forecast error ...

An early track forecast ignited fears that densely populated Tampa and St. Petersburg could be directly hit. Ultimately, Ian made landfall 100 miles to the south. So were the weekend forecasts wrong?

Fed admits two-year inflation forecast error as BLS shows lowest inflation since March 2021. Fed anticipates two more 25-basis point rate hikes this year despite ...